Title: Impact of climate variability on rain-fed maize and sorghum yield among smallholder farmers

Abstract

Rain-fed food crop production is very sensitive to climate variability. The majority of Ethiopian population is reliant on rain-fed seasonal agriculture, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The objective of the study was to investigate the impact of rainfall and temperature changes on maize and sorghum yields. The data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope, correlation, and regression models. The study’s findings demonstrated that rainfall and temperature have different effects on maize and sorghum yields. The Mann-Kendall trend test has detected the presence of a significant increasing trend for both maize and sorghum yields. Though there was an upward trend, the result also suggests that maize and sorghum yields have been fluctuating more. There was a variation of 90% and 88% in maize and sorghum yield, respectively. The R-squared statistics indicated the variability of 25.21%, 1.12%, and 20.39% in maize yield was explained by its growing period rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively. Growing period rainfall and minimum temperature were positively correlated with maize and sorghum yield output, while the maximum temperature was negatively correlated. A significant association has been detected between sorghum yield and its growing period rainfall and maximum temperature. The regression model revealed that rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperatures explained 46.81%, 5.08% and 30.18% of the variation in sorghum production, respectively. Both crops showed unpredictability as a result of rainfall and temperature changes, emphasizing the necessity for irrigated agriculture, agricultural diversification, and livelihood diversification to respond to climate variability.