Title: Assessing the potential sites prone to invasion of Lantana camara under the climate change scenario in Jharkhand

Abstract

Present study elucidates the potential distribution of Lantana camara, in Jharkhand, eastern India, for present (2020) and the future (2050) climatic conditions under different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). The study analyses the present distribution range of L. camara in eastern India and assess the potential areas prone to its further infestation in the future under the climate change scenario. Study revealed that about ~13% of the geographical area of Jharkhand is currently under the threat of invasion of L. camara, and depending upon RCPs, it may expand up to 20- 26% by 2050. Study revealed the prominent distribution of L. camara in sub zone V (~22%), sub zone IV (~11%), and sub zone VI (~4.5%). Future projection (2050) indicates a possible expansion of its distribution range across all agro-climatic sub zones with dominance in sub zones V and IV. Variable Bio_4 (temperature seasonality) contributed most in limiting the L. camara distribution for current and future scenarios across all RCPs. Suitable habitat for L. camara mostly occurred under natural vegetation and agriculture landscape. In the present study we have attempted to assess the habitat adoptability of other perennial invasive species Chromolaena odorata compared the potential invasion scenario of these two major invasive species in the region. The study revealed, wide distribution across all the agro-climatic sub zones of Jharkhand, mostly in open and disturbed areas under natural vegetation and agriculture landscapes. Future projections for the year 2050 suggest a continuous increase in the infestation range across Jharkhand and calls for effective initiatives to combat its further invasion.