Title: A stochastic Markov chain model for solar generators in Algeria

Abstract

Due to the data quality, missing data issues, and time limitations when modeling solar radiation, the design of reliable modeling methods is needed. This study presents a Markov chain model to determine or forecast future solar radiation. In other words, the goal of this model is to build a simple forecasting tool in terms of statistical thresholds for stochastic solar generators. Moreover, the accuracy of our method is evaluated with data from 1990 to 2018 that has been recorded by three Algerian meteorological stations: Tamanrasset, Ghardaïa, and Oran, which represent respectively coastal, central and oasis sites. The results showed a good performance of this study's proposed method by using specific thresholds obtained by box-plots of historical data. Additionally, this method allows for the long-term conservation of the experimental data's statistical properties compared to the existing methods. Hence, we believe our proposal can help develop a new approach for optimizing energy production from solar energy sources and photovoltaic systems.