Title: Exploring spatio-temporal change in global land cover using categorical intensity analysis

Abstract

Global land degradation and urbanization are rapidly progressing during the 21st century. Here in, we assessed spatio-temporal changes in global land cover using categorical intensity analyses from 1992 to 2018 to evaluate global land degradation and urbanization. Specifically, we evaluated the decrease, increase, and expansion processes and observed temporal differences. These evaluations were performed on a global scale across continents and climates at a category level for five-time intervals. In this study, inputs were gridded into land cover from 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2018. We analyzed five land categories: Cropland, Forest, Shrubland, Grassland, Other (SGO), Urban, and Bare areas. The analysis of change for the last 26 years shows that the loss intensities for Cropland are dormant during the first- and second-time intervals but active during the third, fourth, and last time intervals. Forest experiences loss intensities during all time intervals. SGO experiences only active loss during the second time interval and dormant loss intensities during all other time intervals. Urban Is the only category that experiences active gain intensities during all time intervals. Our study also indicates that for the last 26 years, urbanization has degraded and converted land in the temperate regions. Additionally, in South America and tropical regions, the expansion of Cropland is the biggest contributor to the decline in Forests and SGO. The findings can assist policymakers in managing future land use change sustainably.